The lending environment is shifting. Not dramatically, not all at once, but the signals are clear enough that brokers paying attention are already adjusting how they're positioning deals, managing client expectations, and identifying where opportunity still exists.

Here's our read on what's moving across rates, property markets, and policy and what it means for the deals on your desk.

Interest Rates: Higher for Longer

The RBA has lifted the cash rate to 4.35%, and the consensus among economists is that meaningful easing is still some way off. Ongoing geopolitical pressures, particularly in the Middle East, have kept fuel and energy costs elevated, which continues to complicate the inflation picture.

For brokers, the practical reality is that affordability and serviceability remain the two biggest hurdles in any deal. Lenders are maintaining a cautious approach to credit assessment, and that's unlikely to change in the near term. The deals getting across the line are the ones with clear security, defined exits, and LVRs that give lenders room to move.

Federal Budget: Investors Are Watching

The Federal Budget flagged proposed changes to negative gearing that, if legislated, would take effect from July 2027. Under the proposal, negative gearing benefits would become indexed and a minimum 30% tax rate would apply to investment property deductions.

The legislation isn't finalised, but the announcement has already shifted sentiment in parts of the investor market. Clients with large property portfolios should be seeking tax advice now, not when the legislation lands. For brokers, it's a conversation worth having proactively.

Valuations Are Tightening

One of the more significant shifts happening quietly in the background is how conservative valuers and lenders have become particularly across premium residential markets. Forecasts are pointing to softening of 7–10% in selected high-end markets as lenders recalibrate their risk settings.

Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide have been standout performers, but investor demand in those markets may begin to moderate as affordability pressures build and lending conditions tighten further. At Speedy, we assess property values on a suburb-by-suburb basis as part of our internal risk process. It's one of the reasons we can still move on deals where others have pulled back.

Residential: Resilient, But Normalising

Despite the headwinds, residential property has held up better than many expected. The strongest growth continues to come from smaller capital cities, where limited housing supply, interstate migration, and strong employment are supporting values.

Sydney and Melbourne are beginning to normalise, but the broader residential market remains resilient. For brokers, the opportunity is still there, it just requires sharper deal structuring and a lender willing to assess each scenario on its merits rather than applying a blanket policy.

Commercial: Know Where Appetite Exists

Commercial property is facing a more challenging environment. Office vacancy rates are rising across several metro markets, and elevated borrowing costs are extending approval timeframes with mainstream lenders.

That said, lender appetite hasn't disappeared, it's concentrated. Well-located assets with quality tenants and sustainable rental income are still attracting strong interest. Growth markets worth watching include Mackay, Newcastle and Rockhampton, while Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane office markets continue to face pressure.

What This Means for Your Next Deal

Markets shifting doesn't mean deals stop getting done it means the deals that do get done require more considered structuring and a lender built for complexity. Clear security, sensible LVRs, defined exit strategies, and speed of execution are what separates a settled deal from one that stalls.

If you've got a scenario that's been knocked back or is up against the clock, send it through. We're built for the moments the banks can't move on.

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